Global change and disturbance ecology, including risks and benefits to humans, are a current research topic in applied science, and many projections are considered in the context of climate change. There is widespread concern that mortality, costs and negative impacts on ecosystems will increase. Examples of recent disasters support this view of things. Positive trends and benefits for nature are much less often communicated. Furthermore, important ecological facts are ignored, especially in summaries for political decision-makers and in the social media.
To find out how the discrepancy between the socio-ecological reality and some alarming predictions on a global scale comes about, we examined the IPCC reports from 2018-2023 using text mining including word frequency analysis and compared reflections on changing conditions with ecological findings and public information on the internet.
Both a negativity bias and a repetition bias were identified. However, ecological conditions and processes vary from one climate zone to another and from one year to another. Therefore, ecological processes and their significance in terms of risks and benefits to people, biodiversity and ecosystems need to be analyzed at local to regional scales.
Ignorance and distorted perceptions create problems both in the practical implementation of environmental measures and at the psychosocial level. 1. The focus on global change distracts from the regionally different socio-ecological problems. 2. The focus on disasters distracts from the importance of gradual changes. 3. The range of possible solutions is severely limited and many people are emotionally burdened. 4. The increasing polarization between climate change alarmism and climate change denial could further undermine trust in science. There are already many people who no longer have confidence in scientific findings. 5. It is necessary to emphasize the ecological significance of extreme events and values in the landscape. The goal of completely eliminating extreme events is unacceptable with regard to the aspiration and principles of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).