Committee Members

Abstrsct:

Immortal time bias (ITB) is common in cohort studies and biases the association estimates between the treated and untreated individuals. We used data from an Italian study on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, with a large cohort, long follow-up, and adjustment for confounding factors, but affected by ITB. We verified the real impact of the vaccination campaign, comparing the risk of all-cause death between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated population.

We aligned all subjects on a single index date and considered the “all-cause deaths” outcome to compare the survival distributions of the unvaccinated group versus various vaccination statuses. The all-cause-death hazard ratios (HRs) in univariate analysis for vaccinated people with 1, 2, and 3/4 doses versus unvaccinated people were 0.88, 1.23, and 1.21, respectively. The multivariate values were 2.40, 1.98, and 0.99. Possible explanations of this trend of the HRs as vaccinations increase could be: a harvesting effect; a calendar-time bias, accounting for seasonality and pandemic waves; a case-counting window bias; a healthy-vaccinee bias; or some combination of these factors. With 2 and even with 3/4 doses, the calculated Restricted Mean Survival Time and Restricted Mean Time Lost showed a small but significant downside for the vaccinated populations.

The study results should lead to rethink political choices about pandemic management, supporting greater caution in the future.

J.K. Norvienyeku is an Associate Professor and Master Tutor at Hainan University, specializing in plant pathogenic bacteria and host interactions. Holding a Master’s and Ph.D. in Plant Pathology, Dr. Norvienyeku’s research focuses on understanding the mechanisms underlying host-pathogen interactions.

He has led multiple research projects, including the National Natural Science Foundation of China’s Foreign Young Scholars Project, where he investigated the role of Pyricularia oryzae Cytoplasmic Dynein Intermediate Light-chain1 as a non-classically secreted effector targeting host nuclei during infection. Additionally, he is currently conducting research funded by the Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation Committee, exploring the functional study of atypical secreted effectors targeted by host organelles during Magnaporthe oryzae infection. Dr. Norvienyeku’s work contributes to the advancement of knowledge in plant pathology and has earned him recognition as a leading expert in his field.

Jeffrey L. Ram has diverse research interests relating to biodiversity, reproductive biology, neuroscience, invasive species, and human and environmental microbiology. He studies diverse aquatic organisms both as model systems for reproductive biology and neurobiology and as a way to understand changes taking place in Great Lakes habitats and ecology. These organisms include animals that can affect human health, such as midges and mosquitoes, predatory microinvertebrates that prey upon them, and aquatic invaders of the Great Lakes, like the zebra mussel. His invertebrate research has been recognized internationally by several international research grants, and he is the past-president of the International Society for Invertebrate Reproduction and Development. In addition, Dr. Ram led a National Science Foundation to promote science and science careers among students in the Detroit public schools. As an associate in the Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, Dr. Ram connects technically and conceptually as well to research on the molecular detection and characterization of microorganisms in diverse habitats. These projects have included analyses not only of environmentally significant bacteria at beaches and microorganisms in the ballast water of ships, but also correlations of human oral and fecal microbiomes with disease and behavior, and most recently the detection and quantitation of COVID-19 virus in wastewater.

Abstract:

Fish is highly susceptible to microbial spoilage due to its nutrient rich composition. Rising ocean temperatures, transport of microorganisms by marine vessels across the oceans, and anthropogenic activities adding pathogenic microorganisms to coastal seas, trigger pre-harvest microbial hazards. The harmful algal blooms are spreading  towards polar regions due to global warming of surface waters as seen around Atlantic Oceans and Salish sea. The biotoxins from the algal blooms move up the marine food web, on consumption by small fish and crustaceans. The Ballard water discharged from ships mid-oceans spread toxic algae into hitherto uncontaminated ecosystems, as seen around Rupa Islands. The spread of algae continuously reduces the natural fish breeding areas available for capture. The water discharged directly into seas from rivers, through estuaries, and lagoons brings microbial contaminants. The freshwater in rivers tends to carry nutrients from lands and animal waste along with pathogenic microorganisms capable of surviving in brackish water entering fish pre-harvest. Increased populations of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholera occur in locations where fresh water mix with sea water and in seas  where summer temperatures increase beyond 19 ^oC, in Asian and Australian fishing areas. Plastics serve as vehicles carrying  Vibrio species into new environments in oceans and into guts of fish. There is need to develop databases for machine prediction of microbial contamination of oceans with the view to predict and recognize areas for harvesting fish, as pollutions and microbial contaminations  in the marine environments are beyond human control.