Abstract

Measles is a highly contagious viral exanthematic disease, particularly severe in children under five years old. In 1993, the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI) introduced a two-dose MMR (measles,mumps, rubella) vaccine The country gained the virus eradication certificate in 2016, lost it in 2018, and regained it again in 2024. This study relates vaccination coverage to measles incidence from 2013 to 2022, aiming to analyze these data and correlate them with temporal trends. The method used was mixed observational, descriptive, and time-trend study, using data from the Department of Informatics of SUS (Sistema Unico de Saúde) and the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance. Statistical analysis was performed using simple linear regression, with p<0.05. The state had first-dose MMR coverage above the recommended 95% in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2022. During this period, one case was recorded in 2013, 304 in 2019, and 108 in 2020. The second dose target was not met in any years of the studied period. There was a downward trend in first-dose vaccination (β -2.111; p=0.005), with a mean rate of 96.89% and a 9.24% reduction when compared the first and last years. A stable trend was observed for the second dose, with a mean rate of 82.79%. Therefore, this study indicates a downward trend in first-dose of MMR vaccine coverage and low stability in the second-dose, reinforcing the importance of rigorous public health policies.