Abstract
Climate change is reshaping the abiotic environment of crops, with profound implications for plant disease dynamics. I will present findings from a systematic review of the peer‑reviewed literature (2013–2024) that examined how climate‑driven changes in key abiotic factors — notably water deficit stress (WDS), elevated temperature (eT°), and elevated CO2 (eCO2) — influence pathogen severity across agricultural systems.
Methods: A comprehensive search of Scopus and Web of Science yielded 2,459 records; after applying PRISMA screening and eligibility criteria, 106 studies were selected for in‑depth analysis. Studies were categorized by abiotic driver and pathogen type to identify patterns, crop‑specific responses, and knowledge gaps.
Key results: Of the 106 studies, 32 focused on WDS, 27 on combined eT°+e CO2, 23 on eT° alone, 22 on e CO2 alone, and only 2 on combined eT°+WDS. The dataset covered 60 crops, with wheat, grape, chickpea, and rice most frequently studied. Fungal pathogens dominated the literature — Fusarium spp. was the most researched genus, followed by Rhizoctonia spp. and Phytophthora spp. Overall, 54% of studies reported increased pathogen severity under altered abiotic conditions. Water deficit stress emerged as the most consistent driver of heightened disease severity, while combined elevated temperature and CO2 also tended to exacerbate disease outcomes. Soil‑borne pathogens in particular showed strong sensitivity to abiotic shifts, underscoring the role of soil dynamics in mediating disease responses.
Interpretation and implications: Responses are frequently complex and context‑dependent, shaped by interactions among pathogen biology, host physiology, and soil processes. Crucially, multi‑factorial experiments that mirror projected climate regimes remain scarce, limiting our ability to forecast disease risk accurately. To protect crop health and food security, research priorities should include multi‑stress experiments, soil‑pathogen‑host feedback studies, and focus on staple crops and high‑risk pathogens.
Concluding call to action: Translational strategies — improving soil and water management, breeding for multi‑stress resistance, and adapting integrated pest management — must be informed by multi‑factor research. Only by closing these knowledge gaps can we develop resilient agricultural systems capable of withstanding the escalating disease pressures of a changing climate.
